AISC project 19 — environment-first

Doom Assumptions

An interactive map of AI risk. Compare snapshots in time. Adjust assumptions and see how trajectories change.

Single scenario
All trajectories
P(Doom) trajectory
P(Doom) — collective trajectory envelope
Full range Middle 50% Median Worst Best
Notation
E=environment (internally coupled such that changes propagate to K)
K=dangerous conditions (subset of E)
K₀=current state of K at time t
K+=K worsening
t=point in time at which K and R₀ are sampled
R₀=rate of change of K at t (current trajectory)
Rc=rate at which corrective capacity can negate K+
O=optimization (preference ordering of actions to change E)
M=K is mutable (accessible, changeable)
DAI = AI where K+ | O > R₀
AI optimization accelerates dangerous conditions worsening beyond current trajectory
Lock in = K+ > Rc
worsening outpaces corrective capacity
D = DAI ∧ Lock in
AI made it worse and corrective capacity can't keep up